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Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number 6

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

800 PM PDT Thu Jun 28 2018

Emilia's cloud pattern is characterized by a large expanse of convection deeper than -70°C bursting near and west of the low-level circulation. Outflow is good to excellent to the north and west, but restricted across the eastern semicircle due to the continued effects ot 15-20kt of easterly wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 3.0/45kt from SAB and T3.5/55kt from TAFB. The estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT is much lower at T2.2/33kt, but this appears to stem from the center estimate being too far east. A blend of SAB and TAFB, in conjunction with the improving satellite presentation, yields an initial intensity of 50kt.

The cyclone continues to move steadily west-northwest this evening, and this motion is expected to continue through the rest of the period. By day 4, Emilia is expected to degenerate to a non-convective remnant area of low pressure, allowing the system to be steered in the low-level easterly trade wind flow.

Despite the marginally conducive environment, Emilia has intensified quicker than most guidance suggested yesterday. There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with upper-level winds expected to slowly slacken over the next few days while the cyclone tracks over increasingly cool waters. These factors may favor continued intensification for the next 36 hours before steady weakening begins thereafter, and Emilia is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 hours. The updated forecast shows the system peaking just below hurricane strength on Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 29/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 30/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

36H 30/1200Z 55 KT 65 MPH

48H 01/0000Z 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 02/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

96H 03/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 04/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW