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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 17

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 1 2018

After an extended period of resilience from Emilia in the face of unsupportive sea surface temperatures, Emilia is now completely devoid of any deep convection, with the last cluster of deep convection being left to decay to the system's southeast as the circulation is propelled west-northwestward by subtropical easterlies. The cooler sea surface temperatures should taper off Emilia's intensity, transitioning it to a remnant low Monday morning. The intensity has been kept at 25 knots based on afternoon scatterometer data.

Without any continued convective activity, Emilia will continue to dry out and slowly fill as it continues its westerly heading. A ridge over the Baja California Peninsula is pulling Emilia more north than it has been the last few days, but a dominant ridge over the far northeast Pacific will curve Emilia west once more. Any threat to Hawaii, however, is minimal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 02/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 03/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED