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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 15

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 1 2018

Emilia is proving to be a very tenacious system this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a persistent area of convection to the circulation's southwest, which has even produced some -70°C cloud tops. The developments are a bit surprising given that the system is moving over cooling 25°C waters, though there is an upper trough over the Western United States that might be providing some favorable divergent flow, allowing for the convection to sustain itself. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are pegged at T1.5/25kt, but CIMSS-ADT has in fact risen now to T2.2/32kt, complemented by a ScatSat pass at 0418Z that showed a small region of convectively-enhanced 30 kt winds to Emilia's southwest. On this basis Emilia is kept at 30 kt.

Still, no intensification is expected, and future positive developments at this point will mostly buoy the storm's intensity as an organized depression without anything much higher. The moisture content of the atmosphere is drying out quickly, which will soon leave an inactive swirl of clouds in a day once Emilia transitions into a remnant area of low pressure.

INIT 01/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 02/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 02/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 03/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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