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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 12

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

2:00 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia continues to shed convection this afternoon as it enters an area of stable air characterized by a large swath of stratocumulus to the system's northwest. The small deep convective pocket that was present to the system's southwest this morning has lifted as a dense region of cirrus, so there are no active areas of deep convection currently present with Emilia. SAB and TAFB have given T1.5/25kt for their satellite intensity estimates. However, given the fairly large area of 30 kt winds sampled in this morning's ASCAT pass in a convectively free environment, the intensity this advisory is held at 30 kt, though this may be a bit aggressive.

No changes to the forecast philosophy this advisory, with westward motion being driven by the large Central Pacific subtropical ridge with some latitudinal ascent from some localized height anomalies north of the center. Sea surface temperatures have fallen beneath 25°C and should keep any new convection in check. Continued weakening is expected for the remanider of the forecast period, and shear increasing in 12-18 hours should be the final nail in the coffin for Emilia.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 01/0600Z 25 KT 35 MPH

24H 01/1800Z 20 KT 30 MPH

36H 02/0600Z 20 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 02/1800Z 15 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 03/1800Z ... DISSIPATED