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Tropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number 11

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

8:00 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Emilia is quickly on her way out, and even faster than previously anticipated. The center of circulation is fully exposed this morning, and the old convective core has largely disintegrated; for the most part, Emilia is now a swirl of low-lying cumulus. Some new convection continues to fire southwest, but with sea surface temperatures dropping to below 26°C and 300 mb shear still impinging on the storm, we appear to be nearing the end of the line for Emilia. An ASCAT pass at 0438Z failed to find any gale-force winds, and without much convective activity, undersampling would be less significant. Thus, the intensity for Emilia has been lowered to 30 kt in concurrence with the scatterometer data.

Emilia continues west-northwestward, and its lowered intensity will eventually get it moving with the dominant Pacific easterlies without much variance in direction later in the forecast window. Falling sea surface temperatures and a drying environment should continue to plague Emilia; interestingly, some models show a "sweet spot" for intensification around 24-36 hours from now, though I've largely discounted these as they appear to be a poor interpretation of the 24°C predicament that the cyclone would be in. We've seen tenacious eastern Pacific storms in cool waters before, but they typically are organized headed into the cold waters, rather than fully sheared as Emilia currently is. The current forecast track shows slow decay before Emilia degenerates in 60-72 hours.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 01/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 01/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 02/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

48H 02/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH

72H 03/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 04/1200Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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