Public advisory[]
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER
0400PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
SUMMARY OF 0400PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION... 17.7N 104.5W
ABOUT 95MI... 150KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 KT...90 MPH...150 KM/H
MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE... 984 MB...29.06 INCHES
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 4 KT...5MPH...7 KM/H
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 0400 pm CDT, the center of Hurricane Carlos was located at 17.7N, 104.5W, or about 95 miles (150 kilometers) south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 984 millibars (hPa; 29.06 inHg), and the system was moving west-northwest at 4 knots (5 mph, 7 km/h). Carlos' potential for brief intensification is likely into a category two storm over the coming day or so before passing Cabo Corrientes and entering more unfavorable conditions.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 1000 pm CDT.
$$ Forecaster Kalassak
Discussion[]
HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
WIKI-HURRICANES FORECAST CENTER
0400PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015
Carlos continues to pack surprises as recon found out earlier today. It would appear that Carlos found a local optimum in the environment and took advantage while it could. In the past few hours an eye was briefly visible on visible satellite imagery. Currently the convection appears to be receding significantly, giving the storm a much smaller appearance similar to yesterday, but the center of the system is still sustaining convective activity. Recent microwave passes have not managed to resolve Carlos' small core, but reconnaisance from a few hours ago found winds supportive of a surprising initial intensity of 80 knots.
Carlos is located in a pocket of weak shear as it passes under an upper level anticyclone. This should, and has already, allowed the storm to strengthen significantly. Over the next 24 hours or so, conditions do not look very bad for this storm. Further intensification today and into tomorrow morning is likely. Beyond a day or so though, Carlos will move into a region of much drier air and shear will begin to increase once again and should induce steady weakening as the storm turns more northerly past Cabo Corrientes.
The track forecast for Carlos remains effectively the same as the previous advisory. Slight adjustments for forward motion have been made, keeping Carlos a bit slower than previously anticipated per a general model consensus. Carlos should track generally northwest on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge and in about two days should curve slightly more northward and slow down as a result of Tropical Storm Bill in the Atlantic causing a weakness in the ridge.
INIT 16/2100Z 17.5N 104.5W 80KT 90MPH
12HR 17/0600Z 18.1N 105.0W 85KT 100MPH
24HR 17/1800Z 18.8N 105.7W 80KT 95MPH
36HR 18/0600Z 19.2N 106.1W 65KT 75MPH
48HR 18/1800Z 19.5N 106.3W 45KT 50MPH
72HR 19/1800Z 20.4N 106.7W 30KT 35MPH
96HR 29/1800Z 21.1N 107.0W 20KT 25MPH ... REMNANT LOW
120HR 16/1200Z ... DISSIPATED
$$ Forecaster Kalassak