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Archived EPAC TWOs
Tropical Weather Outlook

0800 AM EDT Jun 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next five days.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next five days.

...EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION...THROUGH 10 DAYS...

The rising branch of the Madden-Julian oscillation has slowed and coupled itself to the atmospheric expression of the West African Monsoon, leading to an increase in convection over the region. Trade winds in the Atlantic main development region have additionally slowed in response, as flow aloft in the tropics becomes more easterly in nature. Though few models explicitly depict genesis through legitimate means, this paradigm shift -- even if fleeting -- will favor stronger African Easterly Waves crossing the tropical Atlantic. Strong outbreaks of Saharan dust as well as intrusions of midlatitude airmasses should keep development chances low, though a strong wave that manages to sneak past to the south of adverse conditions may be worth watching as we head into the second half of the month.

Ensemble guidance is keying in on a period of atmospheric blocking and weakly -NAO over the North Atlantic beginning early next week and continuing into the longer range period. With an active North American weather pattern comes the potential a system is trapped under this ridging and can undergo tropical or subtropical cyclone genesis. This could be something to watch moving forward as it has been a favored genesis mode early in the season in recent years. 

Forecaster Nice


Current Storms[]

01E

02E

03E

04E

Forecaster Discussions[]

Will note that 91E looks pretty suspicious, but didn't want to initiate on a third weak storm just for it to be a borderline nuisance. atomic7732 10:21, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

GOES-17 mesoscale sector suggested the low was closed (an improvement vs 0530z ASCAT-C) but would wait on classification for convective persistence and to see if it doesn't all fly up with the displaced z500 vort. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:11, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Deliberately held off on initiating on 92E due to potential surface connection with the monsoon trough as observed on nightly scatterometers. Certainly looks very good, though. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:51, August 12, 2020 (UTC)

99E is probably a depression like 13E based on ASCAT (in fact, it looks better defined) but I held off because the convection is pretty pathetic compared to 13E and didn't really want to initiate another storm tbh atomic7732 10:04, August 26, 2020 (UTC)

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