200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic... Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a surface trough of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico remains disorganized due to the continued effects of westerly wind shear. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development over the next day, but the upper-level setup should become at least marginally conducive for appreciable organization as the disturbance approaches the coastline of Texas on Tuesday. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 5:00 pm EDT this afternoon and again tomorrow morning. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will capable of life-threatening flash flooding across the Yucatan Peninsula and waterlogged northwestern Gulf states over the coming days.

*Formation chances through 48 hours...high...80 percent

*Formation chances through 120 hours...high...80 percent


Forecaster TAWX14

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