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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER

800 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic... Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula has shown signs of organization and development over the past few hours. A surface low-pressure-area associated with the wave has been located near Belize. Though cyclogenesis is not anticipated as the storm tracks over land, after 24 hours the wave should be centered in the western Gulf of Mexico, where conditions are conducive for the formation of a tropical cyclone before the system moves onto to Texas or Louisiana coast on Tuesday.

*Formation chances through 48 hours...moderate...60 percent

*Formation chances through 120 hours...high...70 percent

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Forecaster TheAustinMan

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