Atlantic/TWO

Tropical Weather Outlook

200 PM EDT Jun 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.


...EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION...THROUGH 10 DAYS...
We continue to monitor the potential for large-scale ascent over Central America
and the central and western Caribbean over the next two or so weeks for possible
tropical cyclogenesis. Models are in good agreement in showing upper-level
anticyclogenesis in the southwestern Caribbean after day 5, but diverge in
showing subsequent progression. The EPS suite tends to bring this anticyclone
west quicker, resulting in a shearing northwesterly flow across the Caribbean
that would likely curtail and development potential. The GEFS suite on the other
hand show a much more robust upper-level anticyclone regime remaining over the
western Caribbean. Several of its members show tropical cyclogenesis, though
the specific mechanism for tropical formation as depicted by the GFS, its
ensemble compatriots, and the GEM look more related to spurious vorticity 
generation than reasonable solutions. A tropical wave now located at aroudn 27W
and centered southwest of Cabo Verde may play a yet-to-be determined role
in activity in the central and western Caribbean when it traverses that region
at days 6-8. Nonetheless, broad ascent will make for regionally disturbed 
weather after day 5.

Forecaster Tran