Atlantic/2019/13L/Archive/31

Hurricane Lorenzo	Winds: 80 kt
	Pressure: 961 mbar
Advisory 31 / 11:00 PM AST, Tuesday October 1, 2019
Lorenzo is beginning its transition to an extratropical cyclone. The cloud pattern is beginning to resemble a baroclinic leaf, and a pronounced dry slot is developing to the south of the center. In addition, ASCAT data indicates the wind field has become increasingly asymmetric, with the strongest winds focused well south of the central dense overcast. Infrared and microwave imagery show that Lorenzo's inner core has collapsed, and so I have lowered the initial intensity to 80kt for this advisory, a little below current intensity estimates but above satellite intensity estimates. The hurricane is undergoing classic interaction with the upper-level jet to its north and west. This should facilitate transition to an extratropical cyclone tomorrow. While Lorenzo is over cold waters and increasingly sheared, strong upper-level divergence is expected to keep the storm strong as it transitions. Southwesterly flow should steer the system swiftly toward the northeast as this process occurs, followed by a turn toward the east and then east-southeast on days 2 and 3. Dissipation is expected in about four days still. FORECAST MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster TAWX14
THIS FORECAST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PRODUCT