|Tropical Depression Three||Winds: 25 kt|
|Pressure: 1013 mbar|
|Advisory 3 / 5:00 AM EDT Tue July 23, 2019|
Three has regained some convection since the last advisory, as indicated by infrared satellite imagery, although it remains highly disorganized. Several scatterometer passes from 02-03z, around the time of the last advisory, found only a very small region within the depression with 20kt winds. Given that the system is located near land, these winds may not totally represent the intensity of Three. Nonetheless, given the combination of ragged convection and the unimpressive scatterometer data, Three is held at 25 kt for this advisory.
Three is currently experiencing relatively little wind shear, but this is likely to increase by as soon as 12 hours from now. Sea surface temperatures along the track of Three are warm, ranging from the current values near 30C to more modest 28-29C temperatures. Mid-level moisture is forecast to remain adequate for the system. Overall, the main factor keeping the depression weak is going to be the increasing wind shear and the approach of the front. Some strengthening is possible for the next 12 hours or so, and the depression may even get a name as aircraft reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate later today, but beyond this, conditions are hostile for this system.
The depression is moving generally northward as it rounds a mid-level ridge located to its east. It will begin to turn to the northeast late today as it does so, while it also begins to be picked up by the front, which should completely destroy the system. By about this time tomorrow, Three is likely to have dissipated.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED