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Tropical Depression Three Winds: 25 kt
Pressure: 1015 mbar
Advisory 2 / 11:00 PM EDT Mon July 22, 2019

Poof. Shortly after the issuance of the first advisory, deep convection associated with Tropical Depression Three began to wane. That trend has continued through the time of this advisory, and all that remains at this point is some high clouds. Surface observations indicate that a closed and well-defined circulation remains, but that the pressure has likely risen even further this evening. Given the lack of convection, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25kt. While wind shear will remain light and ocean temperatures will remain warm for the next day, unfavorable surface flow from an approaching front is likely to elongate the surface center, resulting in dissipation sooner than originally anticipated. The time of dissipation reflected in the updated forecast may yet be generous. The remnants of Three should be absorbed in the front shortly thereafter.

The depression is moving northwest around the western edge of a mid-level ridge across the central Atlantic. As the aforementioned front approaches, the depression should curve northeast. Few models maintain Three as a coherent system past 24 hours, but it seems plausible that the cyclone or its remnants could scrape the coastline of eastern North Carolina before being whisked northeast.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 25 KT 30 MPH

12H 23/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH

24H 24/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH

36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster TAWX14
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