|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 55 kt|
|Pressure: 993 mbar|
|Advisory 9 / 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019|
Barry has organized substantially this evening. Visible satellite imagery before the sun set revealed a more consolidated low-level circulation, largely free of mesovortices, that had migrated to the northern edge of preexisting convection. Since that time, deep thunderstorm activity has blossomed near the position of the center, with frequent lightning and tops pushing -90C. Unfortunately, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm stopped reporting as it entered the ever-important northeast quadrant. However, data it recorded prior to that time supported an initial intensity of at least 55kt, and that is the strength used in this advisory. It would not be surprising if this was conservative.
Water vapor imagery shows a tale of two different wind layers. Upper-level outflow has been expanding northward from Barry's convection for the past 6 hours, an indication that 200mb wind shear has decreased to more conducive levels. However, that same imagery shows mid-level shear increasing. The end result is a storm that has been able to produce convection over the center now, but one that continues to lack a fruitful northern semicircle. Nevertheless, combined with very warm ocean temperatures and the mixing out of earlier continental dry air, these factors point to an environment that is conducive for continued strengthening up to landfall. An outside factor potentially contributing to an increase in strength will be Barry's interaction with the coastline of Louisiana, with the frictional effects of the land helping to amplify its circulation and generate deeper convection. The new forecast explicitly calls for Barry to become a Category 1 hurricane again. Slow weakening is expected as Barry moves across southern Louisiana, with more rapid weakening thereafter. The storm should degenerate to a remnant low about 48 hours from now. Dissipation remains set at day 5.
Barry is crawling toward the west-northwest this evening but should turn northwest into a weakness between two ridges over the United States. This trajectory will bring the system ashore near Marsh Island as previous forecasts have expected. After 24 hours, the cyclone should curve north and then northeast as it rounds the easternmost ridge and becomes embedded in mid-latitude westerlies.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR LANDFALL
24H 14/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED