|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 55 kt|
|Pressure: 993 mbar|
|Advisory 8 / 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019|
Barry has continued to intensify this afternoon. An aircraft reconnaissance plane found peak flight-level winds of 73kt, with believable surface winds of 56kt. A blend of these values supports a comfortable 55kt. This is despite Barry's current presentation on satellite, which continues to feature a broad low-level circulation displaced north of the deep convection. Several mesovortices continue to rotate within the gyre, sometimes diving into convection and amplifying vorticity, allowing surface pressures to fall and winds to increase. There has been some consolidate of the low during the day today, and it would not be too surprising if the low-level circulation becomes obscured for once tonight.
Although the official forecast continues to call for a 60kt peak and landfall intensity, there is still a narrow window of time for Barry to become a Category 1 hurricane. Its best chance may be right at landfall, when friction from its interaction with land may produce a tighter low-level center. Regardless, slow weakening is expected immediately following landfall, with more rapid degradation as the storm moves away from the marshes of Louisiana. Dissipation is expected on day 5, though this could occur a little sooner.
The short-term motion of Barry continues to fluctuate wildly thanks to the mesovortices within its broad center, but the long-term trajectory is toward the west-northwest. A curve toward the northwest should occur tonight, bringing the cyclone to a landfall point just east of Marsh Island. A turn toward the north into a weakness in high pressure is expected by Sunday, with a recurve east into the mid-latitude westerlies thereafter.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH
[N/A 13/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH...LANDFALL]
24H 13/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED