|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 50 kt|
|Pressure: 998 mbar|
|Advisory 7 / 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019|
Although still largely disorganized, Barry is in the process of organizing into a more conventional sheared tropical cyclone structure this morning, undoubtedly aided by convective growth during diurnal maximum. The convection is more robust near the exposed low-level center of circulation this morning compared to the overnight, though the entire cirrus canopy remains limited to an arc encompassing the southern semicircle of the circulation. Barry's strongest winds are localized in an arc roughly 40 miles east of the center of circulation. A US Air Force Reserve aircraft investigating the storm found peak flight level winds of 61 kt and numerous SFMR values of 48-54 kt in this band, though rain contamination was possible across the strong band. Based on these values, Barry's initial intensity is set to 50 kt.
Barry has crept slowly westward for most of its life, and this morning appears to be perfectly content with remaining quasi-stationary. However, the marginal ridge weakness created by the trough over the Eastern United States should provide a window for Barry to begin drifting towards the northwest today, in the general direction of Vermillion and Cote Blanche Bays. Models are tightly clustered with regard to this forecast depiction, and landfall is anticipated close to dawn tomorrow in that area. Once inland, Barry is expected to continue northwards through Louisiana and accelerate and trend northeast over time as low-level ridging brings Barry and its future remnants towards the polar jet stream.
Conditions have improved marginally since last night with satellite imagery noting a decrease in dry air over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Ocean temperatures and effective wind shear values are generally supportive of intensification, though the northerly upper-level winds from a nearby upper-level ridge and Barry's own outflow are still in a gridlock with one another. High-resolution short-term model guidance suggests that we'll see improvements to Barry's convective structure throughout the afternoon, which will make the storm at least somewhat more receptive of environmental favorables. Although an eyewall of even the most rudimentary sort appears unlikely, the guidance anticipates that the circulation may finally tuck under convection tonight. However, Barry has limited time - less than a day - before it begins to track onto the coast. Some additional strengthening is depicted in the forecast before landfall, and hurricane intensity remains a possibility. Weakening should occur once over land with degeneration to a remnant low depicted in approximately three days.
INIT 12/1500Z 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH...LANDFALL
36H 14/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 17/1200Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW