|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 45 kt|
|Pressure: 1000 mbar|
|Advisory 6 / 04:00 AM CDT Fri July 12 2019|
Barry's satellite presentation remains much the same as it has throughout the course of yesterday. The storm consists of a broad circulation with several mesovortices and deep convection situated primarily in the southern semicircle, well removed from the center of circulation under the influence of strong northerly shear. No new aircraft reconnaissance data has come in, Dvorak estimates at 06z remain low, and an ASCAT-C pass from about 6 hours ago shows only a small area of gales. With the minimal change in satellite presentation and storm structure, the intensity is held at 45 kts.
Barry continues to move in a general westward direction slowly. The storm should generally continue in that direction today but by about 18 hours it should be moving on a more northwesterly track, turning north as the influence of the mid-level ridge centered over NM/CO wanes and the storm is steered more strongly by the ridge sitting to its east near The Bahamas. The eastern track guidance has Barry moving inland as early as 24 hours from now near Terrebonne Bay, while the western guidance near Marsh Island would suggest landfall closer to 36 hours.
Regardless of track, Barry continues to struggle with northerly shear. Due to the placement of an upper-level ridge, this shear is not really expected to let up before landfall, which will keep Barry struggling to organize. Sea surface temperatures on the other hand will provide for instability as they are near 30C. The intensity of Barry will depend on how well it can organize in the face of the vertical wind shear. Based on the slow but steady strengthening trend thus far, the storm would be approaching hurricane intensity around landfall, but given the issues with shear that the system is expected to have, the storm will likely have trouble consolidating a convective core which would allow the storm to reach category 1 intensity. Therefore, the intensity forecast remains basically the same as the last advisory, with the caveat that the 36h intensity may be lower as Barry may already be moving inland and it will be struggling to attain hurricane strength.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 60 KT 65 MPH...AT LANDFALL/INLAND
48H 14/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 17/0000Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW