|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 45 kt|
|Pressure: 1001 mbar|
|Advisory 5 / 10:00 PM CDT Thu July 11 2019|
The satellite presentation of Barry is as messy as ever, with a broad circulation embedded with mesovortices displaced north of an arc of convection across the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from various agencies argue for a tropical depression, so it is a good thing we have access to reconnaissance data. The latest plane in the cyclone has recorded maximum flight-level winds of 51kt, with peak surface winds around 45kt. Thus, the initial intensity is set to that latter value.
Barry has moved erratically throughout the day, with the two latest fixes forming a due south component. The general motion today has been to the west-southwest, in conjunction with flow around a mid-level ridge across Arizona and New Mexico. There has been little change to the track philosophy for once. The influence of the aforementioned high, as well as a ridge off the Southeast United States coastline, should steer Barry west and then northwest into the central Louisiana coastline on Saturday morning. Model guidance is settling in for a landfall near Marsh Island.
While the track forecast is becoming easier, the intensity forecast sure is not. Barry is a disorganized mess this evening, the result of wind shear and dry air that are more intense than originally advertised in modelling. That being said, since the expectation was initially for a storm that had the potential to undergo rapid intensification on approach to landfall, the change in the forecast here is for a storm that instead only slowly organizes. This will be aided by ocean temperatures near 30C on approach to landfall. Barry still does not have a consolidated low-level circulation, although the radius of maximum winds have become more concentrated about the broad center since this morning. This process should occur slowly over the next 24 to 36 hours, and a slow increase in winds should accompany it. The biggest question for the purpose of this advisory package is whether Barry can achieve hurricane status before landfall. Given that upper-level winds and dry air are likely to persist through landfall, displacing most convection to the south of the center, it is increasingly difficult to imagine a scenario where Barry builds an inner core—a necessary feature to become a hurricane. However, a strictly slow trend upward still argues for Barry to be near the threshold by landfall, and it may be the case that friction from the interaction with land helps boost the storm in its final hours. The peak intensity has been lowered to 60kt, just shy of a Category 1 hurricane, which is now in line with most model guidance. An increasing rate of weakening is expected once inland as the storm moves away from the marshes of Louisiana, and degeneration is now expected in 3 days.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH...AT LANDFALL
48H 14/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 17/0000Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW