|Tropical Depression Two||Winds: 30 kt|
|Pressure: 1008 mbar|
|Advisory 2 / 4:00 AM CDT Thu July 11, 2019|
Tropical Depression Two looks a bit dishevelled this morning. ASCAT passes from near the beginning of this cycle showed winds of 25-30 kt concentrated near regions of thunderstorm activity. The circulation continues to be broad and the deepest convection has moved off to the southwest, though some convection is still firing near the assumed center. A recon flight recently departed for this storm which will provide valuable data for the next advisory. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to come in from SAB at T1.5/25kt as of 06z. The intensity of the depression remains held at 30 kts.
Forecast confidence remains low as the depression is forecast to be under the influence of several different features inducing various steering patterns. In general, the system is expected to track westerly under the influence of the mid-level ridge currently located near the NM/CO border. As the ridge decays, the storm will make a turn to the north.
Northerly shear is the main factor currently affecting Two which will hinder its development. This shear will remain in place for the next 12 to 24 hours before the storm begins to generate an anticyclone aloft in combination with the motion of an upper-level ridge which will dip southwest over the system. This will result in a decrease in wind shear which will allow for significant strengthening. SSTs near 30C and above are in the track of the storm and mid-level moisture is expected to be more than adequate as well. Wind shear is only likely to make an appearance once again as the storm is already moving inland late on day 2 or 3, so brisk strengthening is forecast up until landfall. The forecast points at 72h and beyond have been adjusted downward in intensity as the guidance, even those with eastern solutions such as ECMWF, show Two inland by this point.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND120H 16/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW