|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 60 kt|
|Pressure: 993 mbar|
|Advisory 11 / 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019|
Barry is slowly slogging onshore Vermilion Bay following a landfall at approximately 12z. At 1054z a tide station near Eugene Island recorded sustained winds of 62kt gusting to 70 kt. High-resolution guidance supports the idea that the strongest winds would have occurred at this location. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission observed very similar values over this region. A 28-m offshore station in the southeast convection recorded sustained winds of 60 kt. Based on these data, the intensity of Barry is currently 60 kt, making it a high-end tropical storm. A swath 60-70 kt Doppler velocities have been sampled aloft Southeast Louisiana by the radar site in Sidell, but surface observations indicate these are not mixing to the surface, reducing to roughly 50 kt gusts. Given that a dropsonde estimated a 71 kt 150-m surface column, it is possible Barry might have been a hurricane briefly. Radar imagery from KLCH suggests that the low-level center is elongated on a northwest to southeast orientation, displaced from an expanding field of deep convection to the southeast.
Barry is expected to continue tracking towards the northwest or north as it engages a weakness in the subtropical ridging over the Southeastern United States. Still, motion is expected to be rather slow as this weakness is relatively marginal. The storm should accelerate over time as it approaches the Midwest due to the combination of the storm filling and approaching the stronger westerly jet. This should induce a northeast motion in the track towards the end of the forecast.
Soundings over the ArkLaTex region suggest the presence of considerably drier air aloft, particularly above the 500 hPa layer. Combined with westerlies aloft from the upper-level anticyclone over the Texas Coastal Plain, this suggests that convective activity will quickly displace farther east from the center, keeping the western semicircle of the circulation generally free of any deep convection aside from limited broken rainbands. The HREF ensemble of mesoscale guidance--which has been particularly keen on short-term convective evolution--is in agreement with this depiction. The current intensity forecast is in agreement with the general inland decay solutions as Barry moves northward. Transition to a remnant low is anticipated by day 2 as Barry fails to develop organized convective activity at its center. Some convective regrowth could occur at that time as divergent flow resumes aloft to the east of an upper-level low, but most likely nothing particularly organized. Barry is expected to elongate and merge with a trough over the Midwest by day 4.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 14/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED