|Tropical Storm Barry||Winds: 55 kt|
|Pressure: 992 mbar|
|Advisory 10 / 04:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019|
Barry's trend of organization has, at least on infrared satellite imagery, stopped for the moment. The structure that the storm began to assume around the time of the last advisory is mostly unchanged. Deep convection continues to fire near (and over!) the center, with much of the convection still limited to the southeastern side of the storm as a result of the continued northerly shear. Radar velocities are showing peak values near 65kt at 14kft. In combination with two ASCAT-A and B passes showing peak surface winds of 50kt and the similar satellite presentation, Barry's intensity is held at 55 kts.
Barry appears to be tracking slowly to the northwest this morning, more northerly than six hours ago. The storm is expected to continue this northward turn and is likely to make landfall near Marsh Island around the next advisory time or shortly thereafter. It will continue generally north and round a ridge to its east and dissipate around day 5 when it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
Barry's outflow continues to expand northward, which, as noted last advisory, indicates that the northerly shear has decreased. Sea surface temperatures will continue to be near 30C up until landfall. With the expansion of convection over the center, Barry will have less trouble with dry air. Overall, the environment has improved and is finally more conducive to strengthening, although the storm has taken little advantage of this thus far. Barry will have the potential to strengthen up until landfall and land interaction may even result in some frictional tightening which could enhance wind speeds. At this point, only little more than six hours to twelve hours at the most are left for strengthening, but recon finding hurricane strength winds in their next flight cannot be ruled out. Beyond this, landfall will take its toll and the 12h forecast point once again does not show a hurricane. The forecast reasoning from the past advisory remains in tact. Weakening will be slow at first over Louisiana, but weakening will increase beyond that. Dissipation is currently forecast for day 5, but it may occur as early as day 4.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...LANDFALL
24H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 15 KT 20 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED