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Tropical Depression One-Q Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

12:00 AM AST Sun Mar 24 2019

The depression in the South Atlantic remains fairly disorganized this morning. A recent ScatSat pass revealed that it continues to maintain a well-defined surface circulation. However, associated deep convection had been in the waning phase until recently, and most of it has been centered east of the center. The same ScatSat pass, however, reveals that maximum winds have increased to at least 30kt; that intensity is used for this advisory.

The environment One-Q finds itself in is conducive at the current time. Wind shear is light, with broad anticyclonic flow established around the system, and ocean temperatures are in the neighborhood of 28-29C. This should allow slow organization over the next day or two. Thereafter, upper-level high pressure is expected to shear out and rapidly give way to strong westerly wind shear, which should in turn lead to significant dry air intrusion. Both the ECMWF and GFS intensify One-Q to a moderate tropical storm within 48 hours, with weakening for the remainder of the period. Given data this afternoon, I have increased the forecast peak from 40kt to 45kt, while moving forward the expected time of degeneration. One-Q is still expected to meander for the next 24 hours or so before curving southeast after 48 hours. There is still an outside possibility that the system meanders its way onshore the coastline of South America in the short term as indicated by the UKMET; this is not the preferred solution at this time though.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 24/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 25/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 25/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 26/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

72H 27/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

96H 28/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW