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Tropical Depresssion Iba Discussion Number 17

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

06:00 PM AST Wed Mar 27 2019

Iba is holding on to its tropical cyclone classification for dear life. The tropical depression's circulation continues to lose definition as it spirals slowly southeastward, remaining mostly exposed as strong wind shear prevents any westward return of convection. High-resolution visible imagery shows that the circulation's rotation is starting to open up some, although the system has managed to fire off some convection again. A newly received ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 12z sampled the eastern semicircle of Iba's ciculation, recording a fairly disorganized wind field with 30 kt winds localized in squalls over 2 degrees removed from the center with a swath of 25 kt winds in the dry inflow notch to the center's northeast. With these data, Iba remains a 30 kt tropical depression.

Iba's persistence is admirable but it will likely not last for long. With the circulation unable to hold together in hostile conditions, global model guidance indicates that Iba will likely open up into a trough in a few days admist a nearby developing extratropical cyclone. The current forecast may actually quite generous, giving some cushion for the system's persistence, but nonetheless all rarities come to an end.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 28/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 28/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 29/0600Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 29/1800Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED