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Tropical Depresssion Iba Discussion Number 16

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

12:00 PM AST Wed Mar 27 2019

Iba looks nearly the same on the overall as it did this time yesterday with convection limited to a swath southeast of the center, but with unfavorable conditions remaining in place, the low-level center of circulation has become more ill-defined. A 10:39z ASCAT-A pass missed the precise center, but only identified a singular detection of 30 kt winds within convection. Given the deterioration of convection, the scatterometer data, and the loss of organization oberved in the low-level cloud lines, Iba has been downgraded to a tropical depression with winds of 30 kt.

Particularly dry maritime air and outright hostile shear vectors will continue to whittle away at Iba. Sooner or later, Iba is expected to be unable to produce ny sort of organized convection, resulting in an eventual degeneration into a remnant low and later dissipation as conditions remain unfavorable.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 30 KT 35 MPH

12H 28/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 28/1200Z 30 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 29/0000Z 25 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 29/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 30/1200Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED