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Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 14

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

12:00 AM AST Wed Mar 27 2019

Iba is fighting for its life tonight. After maintaining an exposed circulation for several hours this afternoon, deep convection has grown downscale of the strong westerly wind shear that has been plaguing the cyclone over the past few days. In the most recent frames, this convective activity has shielded the center from view. A 00:30z ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds around 30-35kt, so Iba remains a minimal tropical storm at this time.

Upper-level winds have increased to approximately 25kt, helping to inject very dry air at levels of 350-650mb into Iba. Although the system is producing deep convection tonight, this is not expected to continue as the environment only becomes more hostile. Therefore, Iba is expected to degenerate into a non-convective remnant area of low pressure in about 24 hours as it drifts southeast then east. Dissipation is expected by day four.

FORECAST MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 27/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH

24H 28/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 28/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 29/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 30/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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