Tropical Storm Iba Discussion Number 10
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
12:00 AM AST Tue Mar 26 2019
Like clockwork, Iba lost most of its deep convection this afternoon. And like clockwork, deep convection has blossomed over the eastern quadrant of the storm this evening, despite the fact that the low-level circulation remains partially exposed at this time. A 2230z ScatSat pass showed maximum winds between 35-40kt, and SAB is unchanged from its assessment of T3.0/45kt, so the initial intensity remains 40kt.
The window for Iba to intensify has closed, with westerly wind shear beginning to increase as evident on satellite animations. This shear will continue to keep the center decoupled from the deepest convection while also injecting very dry mid-level air into the storm. Thus, Iba is likely to die a quick death in about 48 hours.
There is actually a change in the forecast track to note tonight, with model guidance generally backing off the idea of Ida accelerating southeastward. Instead, it appears the cyclone will drift southward for the next 24 hours or so before meandering east and ultimately dissipating. This change in the track also means that intensification as a post-tropical cyclone appears less likely than in previous advisories. Dissipation is expected by the end of the period, but this may be too generous.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW