Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 2
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
5:00 AM AST Tue May 21 2019
Andrea's convection, still primarily located to the north of its low level circulation, has decreased significantly in the last six hours as the storm continues to interact with an upper level low. The low level center is now partially obscured by cirrus associated with this upper level low encroaching from the south, indicative of modest wind shear. Otherwise, it appears that the cyclone has maintained intensity at 40 kts, given the previous advisory's intensity reasoning.
Wind shear from the upper level low to the southwest of Andrea continues to significantly affect the system, although a brief period of more favorable conditions will arise around 12-18 hour from now where the influence of this shear will wane. Cooler than normal upper tropospheric temperatures should provide the instability to allow for future convective bursts to sustain the system. Andrea is likely to weaken in its current state, but with the potentially less hostile conditions in store for a brief period tomorrow, the storm may be able to maintain or regain intensity. After this period, a cold front, currently fast approaching, will begin to overtake the storm and the system will degenerate rapidly as it is absorbed.
Andrea continues to move north at this time, but during the day tomorrow the storm is expected to turn toward the east as the mid-level ridge axis tilts, no longer pushing the storm north, leaving it in the hands of the jet stream and the approaching cold front. The center of a weakening Andrea is still expected to pass very near to Bermuda where it will have minimal impacts as it is absorbed by the cold front.
FORECAST MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED BY FRONT