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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018

The satellite presentation of Ernesto has not changed much over the past few hours, with deep convection relegated to the east of a partially-exposed low-level center. I opted increasing winds to 45kt for this advisory given the persistence of the convection, but taking into consideration ocean temperatures below 22C, it is quite possible stronger winds are not mixing down to the surface, like previous ASCAT passes would bear out. In addition, satellite intensity estimates from SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased some. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 40kt. Ernesto is expected to change little in strength for the remainder of the period as it moves northeast into a higher wind shear environment. It should become post-tropical later today and persist as an extratropical cyclone for the next 3 days, finally dissipating--or rather, merging with a front--in the vicinity of the United Kingdom by the end of the timeframe.

INIT 17/0900Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 17/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 18/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP

36H 18/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 19/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED