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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto has become better organized this evening, with a band of deep convection to the east of the center, and more recently the formation of showers to the west encapsulating the cloud-free center. Satellite intensity estimates were T2.5/35kt from TAFB, T2.7/39kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and T3.0/45kt from SAB; a blend of these values, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass, support leaving the initial intensity at 40kt. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours given the increase in convection, but a track over colder waters and into higher shear should cause Ernesto to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours. Extratropical transition should keep the system alive as it moves into the United Kingdom, dissipating in that general vicinity in about 72 hours.

INIT 17/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 17/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH

24H 18/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP

36H 18/1200Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 19/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED