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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018

Ernesto made the transition to a tropical storm earlier this morning, with the formation of shallow convection near and over its low-level circulation. An earlier ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 40kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. No change in strength is expected as a tropical cyclone, but some increase in winds is likely after Ernesto becomes an extratropical cyclone, which it's expected to in about 24 hours. This process will occur as the storm moves northeast into waters cooler than 20C and interacts with shear higher than 30kt. Global model guidance continue to keep Ernesto a separate entity from the frontal system that will be impinging from west, suggesting the post-tropical cyclone will dissipate over the United Kingdom in about 3 days.

INIT 16/2100Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 17/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 17/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP

36H 18/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/1800Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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