FANDOM


Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 3

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018

Ernesto continues to undergo tropical transition, with moderate to deep convection developing closer to the center. However, there are still no signs of upper-level outflow expanding outward, and a recent ASCAT pass shows that maximum winds remain dislocated from the center. The initial intensity is held at 35kt in accordance with ST2.5/35kt from TAFB. Some intensification is expected over the next day as Ernesto continues its tropical transition over marginally warm waters and in low wind shear, but as the storm accelerates northeast into a more unfavorable environment, it should degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours. A merging with a frontal system from the west is expected in about 3 days.

INIT 16/0300Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 16/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM

24H 17/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH

36H 17/1200Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 18/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 19/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM