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Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Wed Aug 8 2018

Debby is holding on for dear life as it heads for more unfavorable conditions in the far northern Atlantic. Increasing northerly wind shear has allowed the low-level circulation, still well-defined, to become decoupled to the northeast of frazzled convection. Despite apparently the unfavorable upper-level winds, an ASCAT pass at 2315Z showed a renewed region of 40 kt winds, and a plentiful region of gale-force winds southeast of the center of circulation in convection-free region. Given the scope of these winds, Debby's intensity for this advisory has been raised slightly to 40 kt. Still, weakening is anticipated as Debby tracks towards the northeast over excessively cold waters later throughout the course of tonight. It is probable that the afternoon's convection was the last deep convection for Debby as a tropical system, and it is likely that the circulation will remain naked as the system transitions into a remnant low. Absorption into a larger trough and extratropical cyclone could occur sometime Thursday into Friday.

MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST

INIT 09/0300Z 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 09/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 10/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED