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Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 2

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 7 2018

Debby has not changed much structurally during the course of the daytime. The broad subtropical center remains exposed with various cumuliform cloud lines evident around the circulation. Convective activity is limited to a wide band that wraps around the north, west, and into the southern part of Debby's circulation, but has expected from subtropical cyclones the deepest convective activity is located in the northern rainband well away from the center of circulation. There is not much reason to change the winds from 35 kt, and microwave-derived winds from an 1834Z SSMIS pass are in agreement with the estimated intensity.

The upper troposphere has been cold enough to support convective activity in the development of Debby. While these temperatures should remain cold, sea surface temperatures are currently dropping and should continue to drop to inhospitably low values. Thus, Debby should either remain fairly steady in strength as a subtropical system or slowly taper off, with no expected transition into a fully tropical system. Debby is moving north in response a trough with which it is embedded within. Another approaching shortwave trough in roughly two days should steer Debby towards the northeast and elongate the system before absorbing it fully

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 08/0600Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/1800Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 09/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED