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Subtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 1

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM AST Tue Aug 7 2018

The area of low pressure in the far North Atlantic has gained sufficient characteristics to be declared Subtropical Storm Debby. The system has a classic subtropical appearance, with deepest convection relegated to bands away from a cloud-free center. Upper-level outflow has been expanding west and north. A recent ASCAT pass confirmed tropical storm-force winds removed from the low-level circulation, and thus the intensity is set to 35kt. Over water temperatures that should cool to near 24C in a day or less, and in an environment where shear should increase to 15kt during that same time, tropical transition is not expected, and neither is any strengthening. A upper-level trough approaching from the west should cause Debby to dissipate within 48 hours as it becomes embedded within the feature. The storm is moving north at the present time but should accelerate northeast beginning tomorrow for the time it remains a separate entity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 08/0000Z 35 KT 40 MPH

24H 08/1200Z 35 KT 40 MPH

36H 09/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH

48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED