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Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 6

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2018

Chris has continued to become better organized over the past several hours. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system earlier found that the low-level circulation had reformed east and aligned with the mid-level center. The satellite presentation has continued to improve, with a dry slot helping the transition the scene type to a ragged eye. A second plane investigating Chris currently has found peak flight-level winds of 57kt, supporting an initial intensity of 50kt.

Nothing has changed in terms of the track forecast. Chris is located in a collapsed steering regime, and it should meander for the next 36 hours. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough diving southward from Canada should provide an avenue for the storm to accelerate northeast toward Newfoundland.

The front responsible for shearing Chris over the past few days is becoming more diffuse, allowing for anticylonic flow to expand. This low shear environment, coupled with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, should allow for steady strengthening over the next few days. There are two potential caveats, one being that intermittent dry air intrusions could slow the intensification rate. The second is that the upper-level pattern is very favorable, and rapid intensification is not out of the question once Chris establishes a healthy inner core, especially on Wednesday when its interaction with the upper-level trough will be most beneficial. The intensity forecast has been left generally the same for this advisory, but it may be conservative if models such as the ECMWF are correct.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 09/1200Z 60 KT 70 MPH

24H 10/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 10/1200Z 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 11/0000Z 90 KT 105 MPH

72H 12/0000Z 85 KT 100 MPH

96H 13/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H 14/0000Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP