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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 17

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018

There is little breaking news to report on Chris this morning. Core convection has continued to decrease since the previous advisory, with a largely bare southern semicircle thanks to dry air wrap-around common in transitioning tropical cyclones. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and support an intensity of 65kt. However, given that a recent ASCAT pass explicitly showed winds of hurricane force, and taking into account the low bias of the instrument, the initial intensity has been nudged down to 70kt instead. The storm is near over waters cooler than 24C, and this value should be cut in half over the next 12 hours as Chris moves rapidly northeast. Wind shear is expected to increase over 30kt, while dry air should only become more abundant. Extratropical transition is now expected within 12 hours as a result. Recent 0z model guidance has shifted west with the forecast track of Chris, and it is now appearing likely that the system will move rapidly northeast into Newfoundland within 24 hours, delivering tropical storm-force winds and heavy rainfall. Guidance has also slowly trended today in a longer shelf life for the post-tropical remnants of Chris, and dissipation has been pushed back to day four accordingly. Some models suggest this still may be too soon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 70 KT 80 MPH

12H 12/1800Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

24H 13/0600Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

36H 13/1800Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 14/0600Z 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 15/0600Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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