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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 13

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Chris has changed little in appearance the past few hours as it passes over a pocket of slightly cooler ocean temperatures. The central dense overcast has shrunk, but convection has become more symmetric, especially to the east. That being said, the eye has cooled slightly and become less circular. Satellite intensity estimates are generally around 90kt, and the initial intensity is held at the strength.

The system should move away from the aforementioned cold pocket later this morning, and environmental conditions remain seemingly favorable for strengthening, especially as Chris interacts with the upper-level trough to its north. Late tonight into tomorrow morning, the hurricane should cross the sharp SST gradient of the Gulf Stream and become more wholly involved with the trough, causing extratropical transition around 36 hours from now. The system is moving northeast, and that motion should continue for the next several days, bringing Chris close to Newfoundland. A turn more toward the east is expected before it dissipates in 4 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 11/1800Z 95 KT 110 MPH

24H 12/0600Z 100 KT 115 MPH

36H 12/1800Z 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 13/0600Z 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 14/0600Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED