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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 12

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Chris has intensified further since the previous advisory, with a warm and symmetric eye surrounded by deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77kt from TAFB, to T5.0/90kt from SAB and SATCON, to T5.4/99.6kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Erroneous analysis from TAFB likely led to an unrealistically low estimate, whereas UW-CIMSS ADT is well known to run a bit high for strong hurricanes. In addition, some dry air has limited the eastward extent of the most intense eyewall convection over the past few hours. As such, the initial intensity is set at 90kt line with SAB and SATCON. The hurricane is moving northeast, and this trajectory should continue at an accelerated rate over the next day as it interacts with a trough moving southward. Chris should pass just southeast of Newfoundland in about two days, though periphery effects are still likely there.

Outside of temporary dry air intrusions like we are seeing now, the environment remains ideal for further strengthening. In fact, interaction between Chris and the upper-level trough to its north is just now beginning; this feature should act as a sink that allows for further pressure falls today as the hurricane continues over waters near 27C. The large diameter of the eye suggests that internal core changes are not inherently likely or imminent, and so the stage appears set for gradual intensification over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, Chris is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it enters frigid waters and more wholly interacts with the trough.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 11/1200Z 95 KT 110 MPH

24H 12/0000Z 100 KT 115 MPH

36H 12/1200Z 90 KT 105 MPH

48H 13/0000Z 65 KT 75 MPH

72H 14/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED