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Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 11

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Recon is finding Chris much stronger than it was in the early morning, and the hurricane is rapidly intensifying. A USAF aircraft reconnaissance flight this afternoon found flight-level winds as high as 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant with surface winds estimated as high as 74 kt. A dropsonde dropped in the same quadrant found gusts as high as 98 kt below the planetary boundary layer. On center fixes, the pressure dropped 4 mb in about 1.5 hours. The recon data has been a good validation of satellite intensity estimates this afternoon which hinted at a strong Category 1 hurricane when recon made its first center fix. The eye has become significantly more pronounced on visible and infrared channels compared to this morning and has warmed quite a bit over the last few hours, with some eyewall mesovorticies occasionally visible in the rapid scan mesoscale sector for the system. Powerful convective activity continues to initiate in the northeastern quadrant which is helping to seal off the core from some residual dry air that has remained in the circulation for the last few days. A strong collection of rainbands is evident in the southeastern quadrant with more banding features developing on the periphery of the eastern semicircle. Poleward outflow is somewhat restrained but is working expanding radially from all quadrants. Based on the aircraft reconnaissance data, Chris has been upgraded to 75 kt and is strengthening quite rapidly as of this advisory.

Chris is moving gradually northeastward and will continue to accelerate in that direction as a shortwave trough draws nearer. On water vapor imagery, the upper-trough boundary extends along a line from Halifax, Nova Scotia to Virginia Beach, Virginia. Chris has managed to rapidly strengthen despite still having some time before frontal interactions can bolster the hurricane's intensity further. All satellite trends point to strengthening continuing through the evening, and perhaps significantly so. Favorable tropical waters should last out to about 36 hours with sea surface temperatures above 26°C before they rapidly fall closer to the Canadian Maritimes, allowing for extratropical transition. Trough interaction should begin tonight which may help bring about baroclinic processes which could strengthen the system even further than environmental parameters alone would allow for. Due to current trends, the intensity forecast has been raised signiicantly and now depicts a major hurricane in a day's time before the system levels off during transition, which is higher than most statistical guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 11/0600Z 90 KT 105 MPH

24H 11/1800Z 100 KT 115 MPH

36H 12/0600Z 95 KT 110 MPH

48H 12/1800Z 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 13/1800Z 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H 14/1800Z ... DISSIPATED

120H 15/1800Z ... DISSIPATED

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