Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 10
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Chris looks fairly healthy this morning as it tries to build a complete eyewall and distribute deep convection around the system. A wide shield of -50°C to -65°C cloud tops extends across the system's northeastern flanks, with a decently strong banding feature southwest of the center. An eye is also readily apparent in all traditional wavelengths. Some dry air is still seen rotating around the center in the interface between the eyewall and outer rainbands, but this is quickly being siphoned off. A microwave pass at 1134Z showed an intensifying Chris featuring a nearly complete eyewall open to the southwest, and aligning the microwave data with infrared data, it would appear that this eyewall has largely closed off. We do not have new aircraft reconnaissance available for this advisory cycle, but satellite intensity estimates over the past 18 hours have aligned well with reconnaissance data. UW-CIMSS ADT gives T4.1/67kt as a constrained final intensity with higher preliminary estimates. SAB estimated T4.0/65kt while TAFB gave T3.5/55kt. SATCON consensus has increased to 68kt. As Chris is moving away from its upwelled water and placing itself in more supportive waters of 26-27°C, winds reflective of satellite estimates are likely reaching the surface. On this basis, Chris has been upgraded to a 65 kt hurricane.
Chris is now moving northeast as a shortwave trough now over the Atlantic approaches from the northwest. Chris will continue to accelerate towards the northeast, potentially making landfall on Newfoundland as a transitioning system before curving east and being absorbed by a polar extratropical cyclone in about Chris or five days. Until that time, Chris has some warm sea surface temperatures and slightly more moist air to work with in the interim to intensify tropically. Some northerly shear is currently affecting Chris, but the system's tigh tcore at this moment seems to be developing enough to sustain localized radial outflow. Warm waters continue out to about 36 hours before the system leaves the Gulf Stream area and enters hostile conditions where extratropical processes will quickly take over. The intensity forecast has remained largely unchanged, with strengthening to 36 hours followed by gradual tapering off afterwards.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 65KT 75MPH
12H 11/0000Z 70KT 80MPH
24H 11/1200Z 80KT 90MPH
36H 12/0000Z 80KT 90MPH
48H 12/1200Z 70KT 80MPH
72H 13/1200Z 60KT 70MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z ... DISSIPATED
120H 15/1200Z ... DISSIPATED