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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 6 2018

Beryl has become a bit less organized during the past 12 hours. The pinhole eye disappeared from conventional satellite shortly after 15Z, leaving behind a small central dense overcast. The system appears to be falting under the effects of some light easterly wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.0/65kt from SAB and TAFB at 0z, and given the degradation in overall appearance since earlier today, the initial intensity has been slightly reduced to that strength.

It's hard to evaluate how Beryl may evolve over the next 24 hours. SHIPS analyzed a mere 1kt of shear, but this does not seem accurate based on the storm's current satellite presentation. It remains in a moist environment, and ocean temperatures have increased since yesterday and are more than adequate for intensification. Model guidance has backed off intensification tonight, with the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF suggesting that Beryl is close to its peak intensity. Upper-level winds from a TUTT across the eastern Caribbean should begin to affect the storm late tomorrow, and its small stature makes it especially susceptible to unfavorable conditions. Therefore, the intensity forecast has been reduced in the first 36 hours and remains generally constant with the previous forecast thereafter. Beryl is still expected to degenerate to an open trough in about four days.

Model guidance over the past few days has struggled with Beryl, most likely because they're depicted a larger tropical cyclone than what has materialized. Such an error has created significant poleward biases in guidance. With expansive mid-level ridging to the north of the system, a westward track should give way to a more west-northwest motion within 24 hours. That trajectory is expected to continue for the remainder of the period, placing Beryl south of Cuba in 5 days. Most global models and their ensembles suggest the storm should cross Hispaniola and end up in the southwestern Atlantic; however, this seems unlikely for now taking into account the aforementioned biases.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 07/1200Z 70 KT 80 MPH

24H 08/0000Z 70 KT 80 MPH

36H 08/1200Z 65 KT 75 MPH

48H 09/0000Z 60 KT 70 MPH

72H 10/0000Z 45 KT 50 MPH

96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED