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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 5 2018

After an overnight period organization, Beryl has curbed its intensification, at least slightly, this afternoon. The apparent eye on visible channels this morning clouded over after 1400Z and has not yet returned. There could be a whole host of reasons why this occurred, from falling instability due to daytime heating, to a brief burst of easterly mid-level shear, to an entrainment of dry air. These factors were all observed in some form this afternoon. However, even without the eye, Beryl  also managed internally well thus far this afternoon, and may be expanding its circulation some as evident from some of the lower-level cloud motions seen on visible images. Current intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB give T4.0/65kt. Due to internal persistence from this morning as demonstrated in an 1840Z SSMIS microwave pass, the intensity for Beryl has been kept at 70 kt from last advisory.

No changes to the general track idea this afternoon as subtropical ridging and natural northerly ascent from Coriolis deflection keep Beryl on a west to west-northwesterly path. As discussed in the intensity forecast from the last advisory, present conditions for development are favorable for Beryl. An expansive upper trough tracking west north of Beryl is helping to mop up some of the Saharan Air Layer in the area, particularly where the subsident airmass is most heavily concentrated north of the hurricane. The most favorable time for intensification is expected to take place tonight and close to dawn tomorrow as instability increases with sea surface temperatures, shear, and humidity maintaining favorable values. After that point, a combination of TUTT and tradewind shear as well as drying conditions induced by traversing further north will cause Beryl to shrivel some as it approaches the Lesser Antilles Monday morning. Hostile conditions in the eastern Caribbean should continue to degenerate the system thereafter, and dissipation is shown before 96 hours in the intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 70KT 80MPH

12H 06/0600Z 75KT 85MPH

24H 07/1800Z 80KT 90MPH

36H 07/0600Z 75KT 85MPH

48H 08/1800Z 60KT 70MPH

72H 09/1800Z 45KT 50MPH

96H 10/1800Z ... DISSIPATED