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Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 5 2018

After losing some organization this evening, Beryl began to develop deep convection around 23z. That convection grew in size and allowed for reorganization of its inner core. An eye became apparent on infrared channels around 06:30Z, and this feature rapidly warmed. While satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.5/55kt at 06:00Z, recent manual analysis factoring in the eye yields T4.5/77kt. Given the recent appearance of the eye, the initial intensity has been conservatively raised to 65kt, making Beryl a Category 1 hurricane. It is the first incarnation of this name to become a hurricane, and the second earliest hurricane on record in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, surpassed only by Hurricane Two in the 1933 season.

The intensity forecast is as complicated as it gets. Beryl has rapidly intensified, 35kt in 24 hours, and the environment remains favorable for further strengthening. Wind shear is light, near 5kt, and mid-level relative humidity values are above 60 percent. In addition, ocean temperatures are beginning to warm after falling to near 25°C this morning. The LGEM and HMON have become more bullish in their recent runs, now suggesting a storm of Category 2 strength early Saturday; the SHIPS is slightly less intense around 80kt. Both the SHIPS-RII and DTOPS indicate a 37% chance of 25kt rapid intensification over the next day. Assuming no instructions of dry air like we saw this evening, all of the aforementioned guidance may be too conservative. Beryl shows many similarities to Hurricane Danny in 2015, which ultimately peaked as a strong Category 3 hurricane. To further complicate the situation, it is now appearing likely Beryl will maintain tropical cyclone status longer than originally anticipated, with the GFS, FV3, HWRF, and HMON all showing a tropical storm of varying intensity passing through the Leeward Islands between 72-96 hours in spite of strong wind shear. Taking all factors into consideration, the intensity forecast has been upped—showing Beryl on the doorstep of Category 2 strength in 24 hours—and now shows Beryl remaining a tropical cyclone through 96 hours. Degeneration to a trough is still expected by day 5 as the system nears Hispaniola.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 65 KT 75 MPH

12H 06/1800Z 75 KT 85 MPH

24H 07/0600Z 80 KT 90 MPH

36H 07/1800Z 80 KT 90 MPH

48H 08/0600Z 70 KT 80 MPH

72H 09/0600Z 55 KT 65 MPH

96H 10/0600Z 45 KT 55 MPH

120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED