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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 15

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

After roughly a week-and-a-half of monitoring Beryl, it's finally time to say adios to the tenacious cyclone. The waning circulation of Beryl has not generated any sort of widespread organized deep convective activity throughout the day today, with the system now reduced to a swirl of quickly rotating low-level clouds. Unfavorable upper-level winds caused by the unique trough environment Beryl is embedded within is to blame for the ailing storm activity, which has keeping any persistent convective activity to a minimum. Without decent ventilation to recycle moisture, dry air has taken full hold of the system, and the dry environment is now largely capping the circulation. Have not seen much evidence of gale-force winds from marine observations and and GOES-16 visible wind product, with the strongest winds associated with the front to the center's east, so the intensity for this advisory is lowered to 30 kt. The remnants of Beryl are expected to continue tracking northeast towards Newfoundland, though if the system were to survive by that point it would be very weak. Some convective reinitiation is anticipated later tonight into Monday morning as an approaching PV anomaly associated with the shortwave trough passes overhead, but otherwise Beryl appears to be a done deal from here on out.

This is the last advisory on Beryl.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 16/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 16/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 17/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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