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Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 13

Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center

11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018

Beryl is comprised of a small but well-defined low-level circulation, with intermittent and small bursts of shower activity to the south and east of its center. Satellite intensity estimates are ST2.5/35kt from TAFB and T2.6/37kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed two 35kt barbs within the convective activity. Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 35kt.

The small bursts of convection are barely maintaining Beryl as a (sub)tropical cyclone. It is only a matter of time before the strong 25-30kt of wind shear, ocean temperatures below 26C, and mid-level relative humidity values below 50 percent put an end to this convection, rendering Beryl a remnant area of low pressure. This is expected to occur within 12 hours. The system is currently moving northeast around a mid-level ridge to its east, and this track should send the remnants into Newfoundland in about 48 hours. No significant impacts are expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM

12H 16/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 16/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 17/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H 17/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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