Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 13
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018
Beryl is comprised of a small but well-defined low-level circulation, with intermittent and small bursts of shower activity to the south and east of its center. Satellite intensity estimates are ST2.5/35kt from TAFB and T2.6/37kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed two 35kt barbs within the convective activity. Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 35kt.
The small bursts of convection are barely maintaining Beryl as a (sub)tropical cyclone. It is only a matter of time before the strong 25-30kt of wind shear, ocean temperatures below 26C, and mid-level relative humidity values below 50 percent put an end to this convection, rendering Beryl a remnant area of low pressure. This is expected to occur within 12 hours. The system is currently moving northeast around a mid-level ridge to its east, and this track should send the remnants into Newfoundland in about 48 hours. No significant impacts are expected.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 16/0000Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW