Subtropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 12
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018
Beryl is on its deathbed...again. All organized convective activity dissipated after 20Z, leaving behind a well-defined but bare low-level circulation. This appears to be the result of strong 25-30kt wind shear, plus ocean temperatures that have fallen to near 26C. The 0z analysis from TAFB yielded ST2.5/35kt, but raw T-numbers from UW-CIMSS ADT have decreased to near T1.5/25kt. Given the decrease in organization, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30kt. Clearly, the environment is not conducive for further organization, and instead Beryl should degenerate to a remnant area of low pressure within 24 hours, if not much sooner given its current presentation.
The storm is moving north-northeast on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. This motion should continue for the next several days, in accordance with most reliable model guidance. The remnants of Beryl may affect Newfoundland by the middle of the week, but this is not expected to be a significant story, with minor effects at best.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 30 KT 35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
12H 15/1200Z 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW