Subtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11
Wiki-Hurricanes Forecast Center
5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018
Over the last several days, the low-level and mid-level remnants of Hurricane Beryl, reformed or otherwise, have crept across the Caribbean Sea, and in response to troughing, lifted north into the Sargasso Sea and are now northwest of Bermuda. On Friday, the remnants developed a well-defined low-level circulation, but the system was still a mostly frontal feature. Since that time, the low has become more dissociated with the front and is maintaining its own convective activity. With the increase in organization now more independent of the front while the system remains intertwined under the upper-trough, the remnants are now sufficiently organized to be reclassified as a subtropical storm. Visible imagery shows that the convection is displaced from a gyre-like center of circulation due to shear, but has become more consolidated during the late afternoon. An ASCAT pass at 1453Z showed a slightly elongated center of circulation with gale-force winds in the northeastern quadrant as confirmed by in-situ marine observations. Based on this information, the intensity for Beryl this advisory is set at 35 kt.
Not much to speak of regarding Beryl's forecast track as a weak shortwave trough is responsible for its present northeasterly motion and will continue to propel the system towards the northeast in the direction of Newfoundland. Conditions are not supportive of any tropical transition as Beryl is expected to continue to comingle with the shortwave trough. Sea surface temperatures are a tepid 25C and fall rapidly in 24 hours, while wind shear is high and will remain high. Beryl is currently located in a mid-level sweet spot where the 500 hPa low associated with the upper-trough is coaligned with the surface circulation. However, this is only a brief window of alignment as the trough is expected to dig further as Beryl moves northeast. The current intensity forecast shows Beryl maintaining its current strength for the next day or so before tapering off.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 15/0600 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 15/1800 35KT 40MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 16/0600 30KT 35MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H 16/1800 25KT 30MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H 17/1800 20KT 25MPH...REMNANT LOW/EXTRATROP