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Archived ATL TWOs
Tropical Weather Outlook

0800 AM EDT Jun 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next five days.

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone development is not expected in the next five days.

...EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION...THROUGH 10 DAYS...

The rising branch of the Madden-Julian oscillation has slowed and coupled itself to the atmospheric expression of the West African Monsoon, leading to an increase in convection over the region. Trade winds in the Atlantic main development region have additionally slowed in response, as flow aloft in the tropics becomes more easterly in nature. Though few models explicitly depict genesis through legitimate means, this paradigm shift -- even if fleeting -- will favor stronger African Easterly Waves crossing the tropical Atlantic. Strong outbreaks of Saharan dust as well as intrusions of midlatitude airmasses should keep development chances low, though a strong wave that manages to sneak past to the south of adverse conditions may be worth watching as we head into the second half of the month.

Ensemble guidance is keying in on a period of atmospheric blocking and weakly -NAO over the North Atlantic beginning early next week and continuing into the longer range period. With an active North American weather pattern comes the potential a system is trapped under this ridging and can undergo tropical or subtropical cyclone genesis. This could be something to watch moving forward as it has been a favored genesis mode early in the season in recent years. 

Forecaster Nice


Current Storms[]

01L

Forecaster Discussions[]

Since we can afford to wait, I figured we could hold off until further scatterometer and recon confirmation this afternoon on the systems on the Atlantic to get a better handle of the low-level wind structure and the center position before initiating. I have elected not to initiate on the two systems at 15z. —CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:27, August 20, 2020 (UTC)

Recon is investigating the system in the Caribbean, finding an ill-defined center and a structure still more resembling a tropical wave axis. This is despite its impressive presentation on satellite. Since the center is likely to jump around in the coming hours, making a forecast now would give one of high uncertainty. The system falls short of TC standards anyway, so I'm holding off. Farther east, the system approaching the Caribbean appears to have acquired a low-level circulation, but convective activity does not meet threshold. I will wait on that one as well. -- TAWX21 20:58, August 20, 2020 (UTC)

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